PM Shinzo Abe Faces Serious Challenges After Tokyo Election

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike

 A stinging rebuke by voters in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election Sunday is certain to set off postmortem finger-pointing and a strategic recalibration within Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling party as he weighs a path forward for amending the constitution.

"We take the results seriously," a stunned Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai told reporters Sunday night. "We will reassess what needs to be reassessed and do our best to recover our lost ground." 

Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike's new Tomin First no Kai party and groups aligned with her captured 79 seats in the 127-member metropolitan assembly, handily defeating the LDP, which was left with a meager 23 seats, down from 57 before the election.

Hakubun Shimomura, who heads the LDP's Tokyo chapter but faces allegations of receiving murky political donations, attributed the party's loss to trouble on the national level. "Heavy headwinds were blowing far above, in national politics," he said in a Fuji Television program. He later told reporters that he plans to step down to take responsibility for the loss.

Abe's party had enjoyed unrivaled strength since unseating the Democratic Party of Japan in December 2012, as victories in three national-level elections followed. But a favoritism scandal involving a veterinary school run by a friend of Abe's as well as a gaffe by his hawkish defense minister on the campaign trail appear to have weakened public support.

Complications for Abe

In a Nikkei opinion poll conducted June 16-18, right before the start of campaigning for the metropolitan assembly election, approval ratings for the Abe cabinet stood at 49%, a 7-point drop from a month earlier. Abe's power inside the party could erode if his plunging support is viewed as the cause of the devastating loss in the crucial Tokyo vote.

Growing criticism within the party could complicate Abe's plan for an easy victory in the LDP presidential election in September 2018.

Shigeru Ishiba, a former regional revitalization minister who is believed to harbor ambitions for Abe's job, gave a scathing assessment. "We should acknowledge the historic defeat," he told The Nikkei. "This was not a victory for Tomin First no Kai, but a defeat for the LDP."

"Damage control is crucial," Ishiba added. "The timing of a cabinet shake-up and the new lineup will determine the future of government management going forward."